Farmers and policymakers are interested in season-average forecasts of prices received by farmers for corn, soybeans, and wheat. These forecasts are also needed to compute Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payment rates and Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) payments that began in 2014/15 under the 2014 Farm Act and continued under the 2018 Farm Act. For more information on the PLC and ARC programs, see Agricultural Act of 2014: Highlights and Implications and Agricultural Improvement Act of 2018: Highlights and Implications and USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA).
This data product provides four Excel spreadsheet models that use futures prices to forecast the U.S. season-average price received by farmers for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton. The models also compute the PLC payment rates for marketing years 2014/15 and beyond. The models do not compute ARC program payments for marketing years 2014/15 and beyond because those calculations require State-, county-, or farm-level data. Users can view the model forecasts or create their own forecast by inserting different values for futures prices, basis values, or marketing weights. A brief description of the forecast model components, procedures, and data can be accessed “by clicking on the documentation tab within each of the below spreadsheets; corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton.”
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has released four reports that look likely to push crop prices even higher. The USDA on Tuesday, Jan. 12, released the January Crop Production, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, Quarterly Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings reports, which held several bullish surprises for the market. The WASDE report cut the national average corn yield by 3.8 bushels per acre to 172 bushels per acre. That resulted in a 324 million bushel drop in production to 14.182 billion bushels. USDA did lower usage to offset some of the lower production figure, with a 100 million bushel drop in exports, 100 million bushel cut in corn for ethanol and 50 million bushel drop in feed and residual use. So, ending stocks were lowered just 150 million bushels to 1.552 billion bushels.
However, Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net, says those numbers put the stocks to use ratio at 10.6%, which warrants corn prices above $5. Quarterly stocks were also estimated at 11.64 billion bushels, which was nearly 630 million bushels below the average trade guess, but nearly even with a year ago. Corn production in Argentina was lowered 1.5 million metric tons to 47.5 million metric tons and Brazilian production dropped just 1 million metric tons to 109 million metric tons. McCormick says production needs to be lowered more than that in the future with the dryness concerns in Argentina. World stocks were lowered by 5.2 million metric tons to 283.8 million metric tons.
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Prices of Historical Corn
$140.00-$240.00/ Metric Ton